Counterfactual evaluation of educational policies in Paraguay

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the counterfactual evaluation of educational policies in Paraguay within the context of globalization, identifying its contributions, challenges, and limitations in public decision-making. A qualitative, documentary, and analytical methodology was adopted through a systematic literature review following the PRISMA protocol. Initially, 127 academic documents were identified through Google Scholar, from which a subset was selected based on criteria of relevance, timeliness, methodological rigor, and thematic pertinence. These were complemented with key institutional documents and primary sources specific to Paraguay, resulting in a total of 23 core texts used for the analysis. The information was organized into four analytical categories: public policy evaluation, the role of the state and governance, Paraguayan educational policy, and globalization and public policy. The results reveal a limited incorporation of counterfactual methods in educational evaluation, a low use of evidence in policymaking, and weak articulation between planning, evaluation, and social participation. It is concluded that educational evaluation in Paraguay must move beyond a technocratic logic and shift toward participatory, contextual, and evidence-based approaches capable of engaging with global standards while remaining aligned with national priorities.